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| Fortune</title> <meta data-react-helmet="true" name="msapplication-TileColor" content="#ffc40d"/><meta data-react-helmet="true" name="theme-color" content="#ffffff"/><meta data-react-helmet="true" name="description" content="Elon Musk and Nouriel Roubini warned of rising recession risks and the Goldman Sachs team sees a 30% probability of entering a recession over the next year, up from 15% previously, and a 25% conditional probability of entering a recession in the second year if one is avoided in the first."/><meta data-react-helmet="true" name="keywords" content=""/><meta data-react-helmet="true" property="og:url" content="https://fortune.com/2022/06/21/elon-musk-nouriel-roubini-goldman-sachs-warn-that-us-recession-risk-rising/"/><meta data-react-helmet="true" property="og:type" content="article"/><meta data-react-helmet="true" property="og:title" content="Musk, Roubini and Goldman Sachs warn that U.S. recession risk is rising"/><meta data-react-helmet="true" property="og:description" content="The Goldman team sees a 30% probability of entering a recession over the next year, up from 15% previously, and a 25% conditional probability of entering a recession in the second year if one is avoided in the first. That implies a 48% cumulative probability in the next two years versus 35% previously."/><meta data-react-helmet="true" property="og:site_name" content="Fortune"/><meta data-react-helmet="true" property="fb:pages" content="56501027948"/><meta data-react-helmet="true" property="og:image" content="https://content.fortune.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/GettyImages-1241430420.jpg?resize=1200,600"/><meta data-react-helmet="true" property="og:width" content="1024"/><meta data-react-helmet="true" property="og:height" content="683"/><meta data-react-helmet="true" name="twitter:card" content="summary_large_image"/><meta data-react-helmet="true" name="twitter:title" content="Musk, Roubini and Goldman Sachs warn that U.S. recession risk is rising"/><meta data-react-helmet="true" name="twitter:description" content="The Goldman team sees a 30% probability of entering a recession over the next year, up from 15% previously, and a 25% conditional probability of entering a recession in the second year if one is avoided in the first. That implies a 48% cumulative probability in the next two years versus 35% previously."/><meta data-react-helmet="true" name="twitter:image" content="https://content.fortune.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/GettyImages-1241430420.jpg?resize=1200,600"/><meta data-react-helmet="true" name="twitter:url" content="https://fortune.com/2022/06/21/elon-musk-nouriel-roubini-goldman-sachs-warn-that-us-recession-risk-rising/"/> <link data-react-helmet="true" rel="shortcut icon" 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